Vikings vs Saints — Week 19, 2017
The Vikings took over trailing 21-20 with 3:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
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What really happened
Final: Vikings 29, Saints 24. Vikings won 29-24 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Vikings ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.1% for Vikings. Our model starts at 48.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph to MIN 30 for 5 yards (48-V.Bell).
- (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum scrambles left end to MIN 34 for 4 yards (51-M.Te'o).
- (2:05) (No Huddle) 21-J.McKinnon left tackle to MIN 36 for 2 yards (48-V.Bell; 94-C.Jordan).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Wright.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to NO 40 for 24 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Penalty on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Thielen (23-M.Lattimore).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph pushed ob at NO 35 for 5 yards (52-C.Robertson).
- (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 82-K.Rudolph (43-M.Williams).
- (1:34) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.41 pts |
| Curl route | +1.27 pts |
| QB keep | +1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Deep post | -1.52 pts |
| End-around | -2.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.22 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.