Jaguars vs Steelers — Week 19, 2017
The Jaguars took over leading 42-35 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at the Steelers 36, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
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What really happened
Final: Jaguars 45, Steelers 42. Jaguars won 45-42 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Jaguars ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Steelers territory, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.9% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 97.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to PIT 35 for 1 yard (23-M.Mitchell).
- (2:00) 27-L.Fournette right guard to PIT 32 for 3 yards (96-L.Walton; 51-S.Spence).
- (1:56) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to PIT 27 for 5 yards (20-R.Golden; 48-B.Dupree).
- (1:50) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.92 pts |
| Field goal | -1.26 pts |
| Quick out | -1.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.28 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.29 pts |
| QB keep | -1.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| Play action | -3.15 pts |
| Curl route | -3.58 pts |
| End-around | -5.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.62 pts |
| Deep post | -9.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.