Titans vs Chiefs — Week 18, 2017
The Titans took over leading 22-21 with 2:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 44, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chiefs.
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What really happened
Final: Titans 22, Chiefs 21. Titans won 22-21 — the drive time expired.
Playoff football. Titans ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 44, 2:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.4% for Titans. Our model starts at 73.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:09) 22-D.Henry left end to KC 44 for 12 yards (51-F.Zombo).
- (2:00) 22-D.Henry up the middle to KC 46 for -2 yards (22-M.Peters). FUMBLES (22-M.Peters), RECOVERED by KC-56-D.Johnson at KC 44. 56-D.Johnson for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 22-D.Henry up the middle to KC 46 for -2 yards (22-M.Peters).
- (1:57) 22-D.Henry up the middle to KC 44 for 2 yards (74-J.Hamilton).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end to KC 22 for 22 yards (38-R.Parker). PENALTY on KC-22-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at KC 22.
- (1:40) 8-M.Mariota kneels to KC 13 for -2 yards.
- (:54) 8-M.Mariota kneels to KC 15 for -2 yards.
- (:27) 8-M.Mariota kneels to KC 17 for -2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.17 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.47 pts |
| Outside run | +0.42 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.12 pts |
| Curl route | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Inside run | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Play action | -0.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -3.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.45 pts |
| Deep post | -4.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.