Saints vs Panthers — Week 18, 2017
The Saints took over leading 31-26 with 4:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
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What really happened
Final: Saints 31, Panthers 26. Saints won 31-26 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Saints ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.1% for Saints. Our model starts at 84.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 42-Z.Line to NO 32 for 7 yards (54-S.Thompson). Pass 2, YAC 5
- (3:25) 22-M.Ingram right guard to NO 29 for -3 yards (29-M.Adams).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas to NO 45 for 16 yards (41-C.Munnerlyn). Pass 16, YAC 0
- (2:36) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right tackle to 50 for 5 yards (54-S.Thompson).
- (2:31) 22-M.Ingram right guard to CAR 47 for 3 yards (29-M.Adams).
- (2:27) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right tackle to CAR 47 for no gain (90-J.Peppers; 54-S.Thompson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams [98-S.Lotulelei] at CAR 30. 29-M.Adams to CAR 31 for 1 yard (41-A.Kamara). FUMBLES (41-A.Kamara), ball out of bounds at CAR 31.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.16 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| QB keep | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Play action | -2.05 pts |
| Curl route | -2.14 pts |
| End-around | -4.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.24 pts |
| Deep post | -7.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.