Bills vs Jaguars — Week 18, 2017
The Bills took over trailing 10-3 with 3:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
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What really happened
Final: Bills 3, Jaguars 10. Jaguars won 10-3 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Bills ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 34, 3:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.5% for Bills. Our model starts at 12.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 25-L.McCoy.
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 10-D.Thompson.
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short left to 11-Z.Jones (23-T.Patmon).
- (3:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to JAX 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-29-S.Thomas.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.98 pts |
| Deep post | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.64 pts |
| QB keep | +0.54 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.17 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.