Lions vs Vikings — Week 12, 2017
The Lions took over trailing 30-23 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Lions 23, Vikings 30. Vikings won 30-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Lions ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.0% for Lions. Our model starts at 10.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 19-K.Golladay.
- (3:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate to DET 28 for 3 yards (55-A.Barr).
- (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 15-G.Tate.
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Rhodes at DET 37. 29-X.Rhodes to DET 16 for 21 yards (85-E.Ebron).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.17 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.83 pts |
| Deep post | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.92 pts |
| End-around | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.01 pts |
| Spike it | -1.17 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.