Chiefs vs Broncos — Week 17, 2017
The Chiefs took over tied at 24 with 2:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Broncos 24. Chiefs won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 21, 2:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.2% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 54.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 14 for -7 yards (57-D.Walker).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-A.Wilson to KC 27 for 13 yards (35-Dy.Thomas).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 14-D.Robinson ran ob at KC 44 for 12 yards [57-D.Walker].
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 12-A.Wilson ran ob at DEN 43 for 13 yards.
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 84-D.Harris (20-J.Carter).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 12-A.Wilson pushed ob at DEN 29 for 14 yards (38-M.Rios).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 42-A.Sherman right end pushed ob at DEN 27 for 2 yards (54-B.Marshall).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right end to DEN 23 for 4 yards (54-B.Marshall).
- (:58) 42-A.Sherman right tackle to DEN 16 for 7 yards (29-B.Roby; 35-Dy.Thomas).
- (:23) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to DEN 12 for 4 yards (20-J.Carter).
- (:04) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.41 pts |
| QB keep | +1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.17 pts |
| Curl route | +1.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.76 pts |
| Deep post | -2.16 pts |
| End-around | -2.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.