Titans vs Jaguars — Week 17, 2017
The Titans took over leading 15-10 with 3:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Titans 15, Jaguars 10. Titans won 15-10 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 28, 3:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 86.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:57) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 32 for 4 yards (93-C.Campbell; 97-M.Jackson).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right tackle to TEN 39 for 7 yards (42-B.Church).
- (3:01) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 43 for 4 yards (51-P.Posluszny).
- (2:17) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 44 for 1 yard (50-T.Smith).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left end to JAX 43 for 13 yards (21-A.Bouye).
- (2:00) 22-D.Henry right tackle to JAX 39 for 4 yards (97-M.Jackson; 44-M.Jack).
- (1:56) (Run formation) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 36 for 3 yards (97-M.Jackson).
- (1:12) 22-D.Henry left tackle to JAX 35 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny).
- (:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 22 yards to JAX 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.71 pts |
| QB keep | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.77 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Play action | -2.16 pts |
| Curl route | -2.28 pts |
| End-around | -4.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.39 pts |
| Deep post | -7.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.