Saints vs Bears — Week 8, 2017
The Saints took over leading 17-12 with 3:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Saints 20, Bears 12. Saints won 20-12 — the drive turnover.
Saints ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 3:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.4% for Saints. Our model starts at 85.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:55) 22-M.Ingram left guard to NO 21 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan; 93-S.Acho).
- (3:10) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn to CHI 26 for 53 yards (23-K.Fuller). Pass 47, YAC 6
- (2:22) 41-A.Kamara left guard to CHI 26 for no gain (59-D.Trevathan). Penalty on NO, Illegal Shift, declined.
- (2:18) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram left tackle to CHI 23 for 3 yards (38-A.Amos). FUMBLES (38-A.Amos), RECOVERED by CHI-38-A.Amos at CHI 26. 38-A.Amos to CHI 30 for 4 yards (9-D.Brees).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Outside run | +0.00 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.15 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| QB keep | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.05 pts |
| Curl route | -2.13 pts |
| End-around | -4.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.25 pts |
| Deep post | -7.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.