Cowboys vs Giants — Week 14, 2017
The Cowboys took over leading 17-10 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 30, Giants 10. Cowboys won 30-10 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 12, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 89.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) 46-A.Morris right end pushed ob at DAL 19 for 7 yards (37-R.Cockrell).
- (4:27) 46-A.Morris right end pushed ob at DAL 19 for no gain (98-D.Harrison, 47-K.Sheppard).
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 45-R.Smith for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.10 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.55 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.66 pts |
| QB keep | -1.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -2.98 pts |
| Curl route | -3.26 pts |
| End-around | -5.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.15 pts |
| Deep post | -8.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.