Patriots vs Chargers — Week 8, 2017
The Patriots took over leading 18-13 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 21, Chargers 13. Patriots won 21-13 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 34, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.1% for Patriots. Our model starts at 85.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) 33-D.Lewis up the middle to NE 44 for 10 yards (50-H.Pullard; 26-C.Hayward). PENALTY on LAC-50-H.Pullard, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NE 44.
- (4:19) 33-D.Lewis up the middle to LAC 36 for 5 yards (71-D.Square).
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski to LAC 25 for 26 yards (31-A.Phillips). Penalty on LAC-31-A.Phillips, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (3:33) 33-D.Lewis up the middle to LAC 23 for 2 yards (56-K.Toomer).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 15-C.Hogan to LAC 20 for 3 yards (50-H.Pullard). NE-15-C.Hogan was injured during the play. LAC-50-H.Pullard was injured during the play.
- (3:21) 12-T.Brady up the middle to LAC 14 for 2 yards (57-J.Brown, 93-D.Philon).
- (2:42) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle to LAC 14 for no gain (37-J.Addae, 56-K.Toomer).
- (2:00) 35-M.Gillislee left tackle to LAC 12 for 2 yards (71-D.Square).
- (1:55) 35-M.Gillislee left guard to LAC 8 for 4 yards (99-J.Bosa).
- (1:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.08 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.77 pts |
| QB keep | -0.80 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.83 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -2.21 pts |
| Curl route | -2.34 pts |
| End-around | -4.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.42 pts |
| Deep post | -7.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.