Dolphins vs Titans — Week 5, 2017
The Dolphins took over leading 16-10 with 2:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 16, Titans 10. Dolphins won 16-10 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 22, 2:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.6% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 91.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:51) 23-J.Ajayi right guard to MIA 25 for 3 yards (98-B.Orakpo).
- (2:43) 23-J.Ajayi left end to MIA 25 for no gain (98-B.Orakpo).
- (2:39) 23-J.Ajayi right guard to MIA 33 for 8 yards (59-W.Woodyard).
- (2:06) 23-J.Ajayi right guard to MIA 38 for 5 yards (91-D.Morgan).
- (2:00) 23-J.Ajayi up the middle to MIA 40 for 2 yards (90-D.Jones; 99-J.Casey).
- (1:16) 23-J.Ajayi left tackle to MIA 41 for 1 yard (90-D.Jones).
- (:29) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to TEN 14, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-14-E.Weems, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 14.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick out | -0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.93 pts |
| QB keep | -0.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -2.43 pts |
| Curl route | -2.67 pts |
| End-around | -4.77 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.94 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.79 pts |
| Deep post | -8.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.