Steelers vs Patriots — Week 15, 2017
The Steelers took over leading 24-19 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 24, Patriots 27. Patriots won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 19, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.2% for Steelers. Our model starts at 84.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 26-L.Bell left tackle to PIT 20 for 1 yard (24-S.Gilmore).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles left end to PIT 25 for 5 yards (52-E.Roberts).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 28 for 3 yards (25-E.Rowe, 55-E.Lee).
- (2:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 60 yards to NE 12, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-D.Amendola to NE 23 for 11 yards (54-L.Fort).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.88 pts |
| Outside run | -0.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.22 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| QB keep | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.84 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.88 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Play action | -2.08 pts |
| Curl route | -2.15 pts |
| End-around | -4.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.24 pts |
| Deep post | -7.39 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.