Browns vs Steelers — Week 17, 2017
The Browns took over trailing 28-24 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 24, Steelers 28. Steelers won 28-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 15, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 25.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 22 for 7 yards (20-R.Golden, 22-W.Gay).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short left to 19-C.Coleman (25-A.Burns).
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short middle to 12-J.Gordon to PIT 45 for 33 yards (21-J.Haden).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson Jr. left end ran ob at PIT 35 for 10 yards.
- (3:03) 34-I.Crowell up the middle to PIT 33 for 2 yards (55-A.Moats).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer scrambles up the middle to PIT 31 for 2 yards (28-S.Davis).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 29-D.Johnson Jr. to PIT 27 for 4 yards (31-M.Hilton).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short left to 19-C.Coleman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.02 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.10 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.24 pts |
| QB keep | -0.45 pts |
| Play action | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -0.77 pts |
| Deep post | -0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.83 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.03 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.33 pts |
| Outside run | -1.52 pts |
| Inside run | -1.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.19 pts |
| Spike it | -2.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.43 pts |
| End-around | -2.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.