Bengals vs Ravens — Week 17, 2017
The Bengals took over trailing 27-24 with 2:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 31, Ravens 27. Bengals won 31-27 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 10, 2:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.2% for Bengals. Our model starts at 27.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 25-G.Bernard pushed ob at CIN 13 for 3 yards (24-B.Carr).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CIN 22 for 9 yards (26-M.Canady).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 25-G.Bernard.
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 18-A.Green to CIN 33 for 11 yards (26-M.Canady).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd (99-M.Judon).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 25-G.Bernard to CIN 48 for 5 yards (36-C.Clark).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 18-A.Green (29-M.Humphrey).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Kroft (36-C.Clark).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 11-B.LaFell.
- (:58) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 81-T.Kroft to BAL 49 for 3 yards (36-C.Clark).
- (:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.81 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.88 pts |
| Deep post | -0.95 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -1.45 pts |
| Quick out | -1.49 pts |
| QB keep | -1.50 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.75 pts |
| Outside run | -2.20 pts |
| Inside run | -2.21 pts |
| Spike it | -2.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.94 pts |
| End-around | -3.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.