Packers vs Browns — Week 14, 2017
The Packers took over trailing 21-14 with 2:37 left, 1st & 10 at the Browns 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Packers 21, Browns 21. Tied 21-21 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. In Browns territory, 2:37 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.3% for Packers. Our model starts at 21.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley scrambles left end to CLE 20 for 5 yards (52-J.Burgess Jr.).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams right guard to CLE 16 for 4 yards (53-J.Schobert; 95-M.Garrett).
- (1:57) 7-B.Hundley up the middle to CLE 14 for 2 yards (95-M.Garrett).
- (1:20) 7-B.Hundley pass short right to 17-D.Adams to CLE 10 for 4 yards (53-J.Schobert).
- (:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short right to 30-J.Williams to CLE 6 for 4 yards (26-D.Kindred).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley up the middle to CLE 1 for 5 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
- (:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+4.84 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +4.84 pts |
| Curl route | +1.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Play action | +0.85 pts |
| Quick out | +0.59 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.36 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.17 pts |
| Deep post | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.04 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| End-around | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -2.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.