Broncos vs Bengals — Week 11, 2017
The Broncos took over trailing 20-17 with 1:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 17, Bengals 20. Bengals won 20-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Broncos ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 1:52 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.1% for Broncos. Our model starts at 24.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 10-E.Sanders (26-J.Shaw).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler sacked at DEN 13 for -7 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 23-D.Booker to DEN 26 for 13 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 10-E.Sanders (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| QB keep | +1.27 pts |
| Deep post | +1.26 pts |
| Play action | +1.01 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| End-around | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.