Lions vs Steelers — Week 8, 2017
The Lions took over trailing 20-15 with 4:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 15, Steelers 20. Steelers won 20-15 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Lions ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 15, 4:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.2% for Lions. Our model starts at 21.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Jones (90-T.Watt).
- (4:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones to DET 22 for 7 yards (25-A.Burns).
- (4:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 85-E.Ebron to DET 36 for 14 yards (20-R.Golden).
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 21-A.Abdullah to DET 45 for 4 yards (98-V.Williams).
- (3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 85-E.Ebron ran ob at PIT 11 for 44 yards (25-A.Burns). PIT-28-S.Davis was injured during the play.
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Jones (25-A.Burns).
- (2:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate to PIT 6 for 5 yards (31-M.Hilton).
- (2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-T.Riddick right tackle to PIT 8 for -2 yards (31-M.Hilton).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 85-E.Ebron (50-R.Shazier) [79-J.Hargrave].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.00 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.13 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.24 pts |
| QB keep | -0.42 pts |
| Play action | -0.53 pts |
| Deep post | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.91 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.94 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.18 pts |
| Outside run | -1.39 pts |
| Inside run | -1.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.94 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.94 pts |
| Spike it | -1.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.01 pts |
| End-around | -2.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.