Patriots vs Texans — Week 3, 2017
The Patriots took over trailing 33-28 with 2:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 36, Texans 33. Patriots won 36-33 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.0% for Patriots. Our model starts at 15.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Amendola (29-A.Hal). HOU-29-A.Hal was injured during the play.
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to NE 23 for 8 yards (21-M.Gilchrist, 25-K.Jackson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski to NE 38 for 15 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 21-M.Gilchrist). NE 12-Brady 78th career 300-yard game, 3rd most all-time.
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-B.Cooks ran ob at HOU 44 for 18 yards. NE-14 Cooks 8th career 100-yard game.
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at HOU 48 for -4 yards (21-M.Gilchrist). FUMBLES (21-M.Gilchrist), recovered by NE-60-D.Andrews at NE 48. 60-D.Andrews to NE 48 for no gain (99-J.Watt).
- (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 14-B.Cooks.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 80-D.Amendola to HOU 25 for 27 yards (35-E.Pleasant; 29-A.Hal) [99-J.Watt].
- (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-B.Cooks for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-J.Clowney]. NE 12-Brady 6th career game with 5+ TD passes, ties Marino for 3rd most all-time. NE 12-Brady 6th career game with 5+ TD passes & no interceptions, 2nd-most all-time (Brees 7). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-T.Brady pass to 14-B.Cooks is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.41 pts |
| Deep post | +1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.02 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.66 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.35 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| End-around | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Spike it | -1.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.