Giants vs Eagles — Week 15, 2017
The Giants took over trailing 34-29 with 3:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 29, Eagles 34. Eagles won 34-29 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Giants ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 3:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.5% for Giants. Our model starts at 19.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.Shepard (53-N.Bradham).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 18-R.Lewis pushed ob at 50 for 25 yards (23-R.McLeod). Penalty on PHI-41-R.Darby, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (3:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-W.Gallman right guard to PHI 46 for 4 yards (95-M.Kendricks, 75-V.Curry).
- (2:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 22-W.Gallman pushed ob at PHI 37 for 9 yards (24-C.Graham).
- (2:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 18-R.Lewis.
- (2:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to PHI 30 for 7 yards (53-N.Bradham, 27-M.Jenkins).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to PHI 22 for 8 yards (27-M.Jenkins).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 34-S.Vereen right guard to PHI 22 for no gain (95-M.Kendricks, 53-N.Bradham).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 87-S.Shepard to PHI 9 for 13 yards (53-N.Bradham).
- (1:06) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 87-S.Shepard to PHI 11 for -2 yards (23-R.McLeod).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Lewis (41-R.Darby).
- (:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-S.Vereen right guard to PHI 6 for 5 yards (53-N.Bradham).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.84 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.71 pts |
| Deep post | +0.49 pts |
| Play action | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.08 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| End-around | -1.42 pts |
| Spike it | -1.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.