Bills vs Bengals — Week 5, 2017
The Bills took over trailing 20-16 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Bills 16, Bengals 20. Bengals won 20-16 — the drive turnover.
Bills ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:33 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.5% for Bills. Our model starts at 23.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:33) 5-T.Taylor sacked at BUF 20 for -5 yards (90-M.Johnson).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 25-L.McCoy to BUF 20 for no gain (90-M.Johnson).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 43-G.Iloka at BUF 43. 43-G.Iloka to BUF 29 for 14 yards (84-N.O'Leary).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.91 pts |
| Play action | +0.59 pts |
| Deep post | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| End-around | -1.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.