Dolphins vs Bills — Week 17, 2017
The Dolphins took over trailing 22-16 with 1:26 left, 3rd & 1 at their own 46, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 16, Bills 22. Bills won 22-16 — the drive turnover.
Dolphins ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Near midfield, 1:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.6% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 12.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perry up the middle to BUF 49 for 5 yards (95-K.Williams).
- (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Fales left end ran ob at BUF 48 for 1 yard (28-E.Gaines).
- (:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Fales pass deep right intended for 10-K.Stills INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF 28. 21-J.Poyer to BUF 29 for 1 yard.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.71 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.71 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.25 pts |
| QB keep | +0.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.16 pts |
| Play action | -0.12 pts |
| Quick out | -0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.20 pts |
| Outside run | -1.66 pts |
| End-around | -1.95 pts |
| Inside run | -2.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.20 pts |
| Spike it | -3.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.