Texans vs Colts — Week 9, 2017
The Texans took over trailing 20-14 with 3:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 14, Colts 20. Colts won 20-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Texans ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 3:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.8% for Texans. Our model starts at 12.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short left to 12-B.Ellington to HOU 33 for 13 yards (27-N.Hairston).
- (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short left to 26-L.Miller to HOU 33 for no gain (95-J.Hankins) [57-J.Bostic].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle to HOU 47 for 14 yards (41-M.Farley).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Hopkins.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short left to 89-S.Anderson to IND 37 for 16 yards (41-M.Farley).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short right to 89-S.Anderson to IND 23 for 14 yards (57-J.Bostic). Penalty on IND-57-J.Bostic, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short left to 12-B.Ellington to IND 17 for 6 yards (27-N.Hairston).
- (:48) (No Huddle) 3-T.Savage pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
- (:42) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to IND 7 for 10 yards (35-P.Desir).
- (:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass incomplete short left to 12-B.Ellington [96-H.Anderson].
- (:12) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass incomplete short right to 89-S.Anderson [93-J.Sheard].
- (:07) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins (27-N.Hairston).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Deep post | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.70 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.64 pts |
| QB keep | +0.55 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| End-around | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.