Raiders vs Cowboys — Week 15, 2017
The Raiders took over trailing 20-17 with 1:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 17, Cowboys 20. Cowboys won 20-17 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 11, 1:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.8% for Raiders. Our model starts at 24.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 10-S.Roberts (30-A.Brown).
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-S.Roberts to LV 30 for 19 yards (38-J.Heath).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Crabtree (33-C.Awuzie).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 15-M.Crabtree.
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 10-S.Roberts (30-A.Brown).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 84-C.Patterson pushed ob at DAL 8 for 7 yards (33-C.Awuzie) [97-T.Charlton].
- (:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 15-M.Crabtree (38-J.Heath). DAL-59-A.Hitchens was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr scrambles right end to DAL 1 for 7 yards (38-J.Heath). FUMBLES (38-J.Heath), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-24-M.Lynch, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.26 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.26 pts |
| Curl route | -0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.11 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.11 pts |
| Play action | -1.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.28 pts |
| Quick out | -1.46 pts |
| QB keep | -1.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.17 pts |
| Spike it | -2.22 pts |
| Inside run | -2.32 pts |
| Outside run | -2.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.58 pts |
| End-around | -3.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.