Titans vs Cardinals — Week 14, 2017
The Titans took over trailing 12-7 with 3:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Titans 7, Cardinals 12. Cardinals won 12-7 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.9% for Titans. Our model starts at 20.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 87-E.Decker [92-F.Rucker].
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis to TEN 30 for 5 yards (21-P.Peterson).
- (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker to TEN 37 for 7 yards (36-B.Baker).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Matthews (25-T.Williams) [55-C.Jones].
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 29 for -8 yards (43-H.Reddick). Penalty on TEN-78-J.Conklin, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 29-D.Murray.
- (2:11) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-B.Golden to ARI 25 for 10 yards (41-B.Trawick).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| QB keep | +0.78 pts |
| Deep post | +0.51 pts |
| Play action | +0.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.15 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| End-around | -1.46 pts |
| Spike it | -1.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.