Raiders vs Broncos — Week 4, 2017
The Raiders took over trailing 16-10 with 4:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 10, Broncos 16. Broncos won 16-10 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 42, 4:16 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.2% for Raiders. Our model starts at 19.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:16) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass short right to 49-J.Olawale to LV 46 for 4 yards (34-W.Parks).
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass short left to 10-S.Roberts to DEN 47 for 7 yards (25-C.Harris).
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass incomplete deep left to 87-J.Cook.
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass short right to 49-J.Olawale to DEN 38 for 9 yards (21-A.Talib; 26-D.Stewart).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 49-J.Olawale up the middle to DEN 36 for 2 yards (26-D.Stewart).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass incomplete short left to 10-S.Roberts (25-C.Harris).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep left intended for 89-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN 8. 31-J.Simmons to DEN 8 for no gain (89-A.Cooper).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.12 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.00 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| End-around | -1.27 pts |
| Spike it | -1.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.