Cowboys vs Rams — Week 4, 2017
The Cowboys took over trailing 35-30 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 30, Rams 35. Rams won 35-30 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:55 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 13.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 82-J.Witten to DAL 34 for 9 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Williams.
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left guard to DAL 40 for 6 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Beasley (90-M.Brockers).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Bryant.
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end to LA 48 for 12 yards (22-T.Johnson).
- (:49) 4-D.Prescott spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott [98-C.Barwin].
- (:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Bryant.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott to LA 39 for 9 yards (43-J.Johnson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.40 pts |
| Deep post | +1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.91 pts |
| QB keep | +0.78 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| End-around | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -1.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.