Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 17, 2017
The Seahawks took over trailing 26-24 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 26. Cardinals won 26-24 — the drive missed field goal.
Seahawks ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 37.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin pushed ob at SEA 48 for 23 yards (36-B.Baker).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 10-P.Richardson.
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-J.Graham to ARI 31 for 21 yards (25-T.Williams).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 39-M.Davis up the middle to ARI 30 for 1 yard (55-C.Jones).
- (1:23) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Graham.
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 39-M.Davis left tackle to ARI 30 for no gain (92-F.Rucker).
- (:37) 7-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.93 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.93 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.60 pts |
| QB keep | +1.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Deep post | +0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.37 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.