Rams vs Eagles — Week 14, 2017
The Rams took over trailing 37-35 with 3:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Rams 35, Eagles 43. Eagles won 43-35 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.4% for Rams. Our model starts at 40.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:45) 30-T.Gurley right end to LA 22 for -3 yards (53-N.Bradham).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff scrambles left tackle to LA 25 for 3 yards (91-F.Cox).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 12-S.Watkins [91-F.Cox].
- (2:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to PHI 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 38-K.Barner to PHI 21 for 3 yards (24-B.Countess).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| QB keep | +1.06 pts |
| Quick out | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.88 pts |
| Deep post | -0.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.07 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| End-around | -2.10 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.