Seahawks vs Commanders — Week 9, 2017
The Seahawks took over trailing 10-8 with 2:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 14, Commanders 17. Commanders won 17-14 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 29, 2:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 39.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 21-J.McKissic to SEA 38 for 9 yards (26-B.Breeland; 36-D.Swearinger).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-J.Graham pushed ob at WAS 41 for 21 yards (24-J.Norman).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right.
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end ran ob at WAS 30 for 11 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 88-J.Graham is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.59 pts |
| QB keep | +1.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.88 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Deep post | -0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| End-around | -1.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.17 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.