Panthers vs Patriots — Week 4, 2017
The Panthers took over tied at 30 with 3:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 33, Patriots 30. Panthers won 33-30 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 24, 3:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.5% for Panthers. Our model starts at 55.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:04) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 84-E.Dickson.
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart up the middle to CAR 27 for 3 yards (55-C.Marsh, 98-T.Flowers).
- (2:11) 28-J.Stewart left tackle to CAR 47 for 15 yards (93-L.Guy).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Funchess. CAR-17-D.Funchess was injured during the play.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to NE 46 for 7 yards (93-L.Guy).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess to NE 41 for 5 yards (21-M.Butler). CAR-17-D.Funchess was injured during the play.
- (:47) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart up the middle to NE 39 for 2 yards (90-M.Brown). PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 39.
- (:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to NE 31 for 3 yards (98-T.Flowers).
- (:11) 1-C.Newton up the middle to NE 30 for 1 yard (54-D.Hightower).
- (:04) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.30 pts |
| QB keep | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.02 pts |
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Quick out | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| Play action | +0.15 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.97 pts |
| Deep post | -2.47 pts |
| End-around | -2.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.