Steelers vs Colts — Week 10, 2017
The Steelers took over tied at 17 with 3:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 20, Colts 17. Steelers won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 15, 3:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 45.5% for Steelers. Our model starts at 53.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:10) (Run formation) 26-L.Bell left guard to PIT 20 for 5 yards (99-A.Woods; 44-A.Morrison).
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell right end pushed ob at PIT 23 for 3 yards (57-J.Bostic).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 17-E.Rogers to PIT 25 for 2 yards (27-N.Hairston). Indianapolis challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell right end to PIT 18 for -7 yards (41-M.Farley).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 26-L.Bell to PIT 31 for 13 yards (35-P.Desir).
- (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 10-M.Bryant ran ob at 50 for 19 yards (30-R.Melvin).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown pushed ob at IND 18 for 32 yards (20-D.Butler) [91-H.Ridgeway]. IND-58-T.Basham was injured during the play.
- (:35) (Run formation) 26-L.Bell right end to IND 16 for 2 yards (57-J.Bostic; 44-A.Morrison).
- (:27) (Run formation) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 26-L.Bell right tackle to IND 15 for 1 yard (44-A.Morrison).
- (:04) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.49 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.11 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.17 pts |
| Curl route | -0.35 pts |
| QB keep | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Play action | -0.98 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.05 pts |
| Outside run | -1.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Inside run | -1.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.69 pts |
| Deep post | -2.95 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -3.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.