Lions vs Bears — Week 11, 2017
The Lions took over tied at 24 with 4:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Lions 27, Bears 24. Lions won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 24, 4:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.4% for Lions. Our model starts at 54.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones.
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 13-T.Jones to DET 31 for 7 yards (20-P.Amukamara).
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones to DET 48 for 17 yards (38-A.Amos).
- (3:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-A.Abdullah right end to DET 48 for no gain (92-P.McPhee).
- (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 85-E.Ebron to CHI 26 for 26 yards (22-C.LeBlanc; 39-E.Jackson).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Golladay.
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles right end pushed ob at CHI 34 for 2 yards (22-C.LeBlanc).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 85-E.Ebron [93-S.Acho].
- (1:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.69 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.33 pts |
| Curl route | +0.05 pts |
| Quick out | +0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.36 pts |
| Play action | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.60 pts |
| End-around | -2.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Deep post | -3.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.