Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 16, 2017
The Panthers took over trailing 19-15 with 3:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 22, Buccaneers 19. Panthers won 22-19 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 41, 3:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.5% for Panthers. Our model starts at 29.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 11-B.Bersin to TB 36 for 23 yards (36-R.McClain; 43-T.Ward).
- (2:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 12-K.Clay to TB 23 for 13 yards (23-C.Conte).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Funchess [98-C.McDonald].
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 12-K.Clay.
- (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-K.Clay to TB 12 for 11 yards (23-C.Conte; 58-K.Alexander).
- (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to TB 10 for 2 yards (93-G.McCoy).
- (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 88-G.Olsen.
- (:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen to TB 5 for 5 yards (58-K.Alexander).
- (:45) 72-T.Moton and 69-T.Larsen reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart left guard to TB 2 for 1 yard (92-W.Gholston; 98-C.McDonald).
- (:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 2, and recovers at TB 3. 1-C.Newton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.35 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.34 pts |
| QB keep | +1.20 pts |
| Play action | +0.80 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.50 pts |
| Deep post | +0.50 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.65 pts |
| End-around | -1.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.