Chargers vs Raiders — Week 6, 2017
The Chargers took over trailing 16-14 with 4:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Raiders 16. Chargers won 17-16 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 8, 4:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.4% for Chargers. Our model starts at 37.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 86-H.Henry to LAC 42 for 34 yards (27-R.Nelson).
- (3:28) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 44 for 2 yards (90-T.Hester, 78-J.Ellis).
- (2:45) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 86-H.Henry pushed ob at LV 33 for 23 yards (42-K.Joseph).
- (2:38) 28-M.Gordon left guard to LV 26 for 7 yards (38-T.Carrie, 42-K.Joseph).
- (2:00) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LV 22 for 4 yards (42-K.Joseph, 90-T.Hester).
- (1:51) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LV 19 for 3 yards (97-M.Edwards).
- (1:46) 28-M.Gordon left guard to LV 15 for 4 yards (97-M.Edwards).
- (1:40) 28-M.Gordon left tackle to LV 10 for 5 yards (50-N.Morrow, 56-X.Woodson-Luster).
- (:53) 17-P.Rivers kneels to LV 12 for -2 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (:11) 17-P.Rivers kneels to LV 14 for -2 yards.
- (:03) 9-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.20 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.20 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Quick out | -1.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.71 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.74 pts |
| Curl route | -1.75 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.87 pts |
| Outside run | -2.01 pts |
| Inside run | -2.11 pts |
| Play action | -2.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.52 pts |
| Deep post | -2.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.71 pts |
| Spike it | -2.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -3.80 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.