Lions vs Falcons — Week 3, 2017
The Lions took over trailing 30-26 with 3:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Lions 26, Falcons 30. Falcons won 30-26 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 31, 3:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.2% for Lions. Our model starts at 27.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 25-T.Riddick [99-A.Clayborn].
- (3:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 85-E.Ebron.
- (3:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 15-G.Tate (34-B.Poole).
- (3:01) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to ATL 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 22.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.21 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.07 pts |
| Play action | +0.68 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Deep post | +0.42 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.62 pts |
| End-around | -1.69 pts |
| Spike it | -2.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.