Falcons vs Dolphins — Week 6, 2017
The Falcons took over trailing 20-17 with 2:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 17, Dolphins 20. Dolphins won 20-17 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 13, 2:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.4% for Falcons. Our model starts at 27.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel to ATL 22 for 9 yards (47-K.Alonso).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-Ju.Jones pushed ob at ATL 40 for 18 yards (20-R.Jones).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 24-D.Freeman.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 18-T.Gabriel.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy to MIA 38 for 22 yards (20-R.Jones).
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 14-J.Hardy to MIA 31 for 7 yards (28-B.McCain).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Gabriel.
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper ran ob at MIA 26 for 5 yards (25-X.Howard).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones (30-C.Tankersley) at MIA 6. 20-R.Jones pushed ob at MIA 21 for 15 yards (24-D.Freeman). PENALTY on MIA-20-R.Jones, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 21.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.03 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.21 pts |
| Deep post | -0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.61 pts |
| Play action | -0.79 pts |
| QB keep | -0.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.09 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.22 pts |
| Quick out | -1.26 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Outside run | -2.19 pts |
| Inside run | -2.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.36 pts |
| Spike it | -2.39 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.59 pts |
| End-around | -3.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.