Commanders vs Chiefs — Week 4, 2017
The Commanders took over trailing 20-17 with 4:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 20, Chiefs 29. Chiefs won 29-20 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.9% for Commanders. Our model starts at 34.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:51) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 11-T.Pryor to WAS 41 for 16 yards (38-R.Parker).
- (4:12) 25-C.Thompson left end to WAS 43 for 2 yards (51-F.Zombo; 95-C.Jones).
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 85-V.Davis (39-T.Mitchell).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles right end to KC 47 for 10 yards (97-A.Bailey).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 25-C.Thompson right end to KC 45 for 2 yards (96-B.Logan).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles up the middle to KC 30 for 15 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
- (1:58) 8-K.Cousins scrambles left end to KC 22 for 8 yards (23-P.Gaines).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 25-C.Thompson up the middle to KC 22 for no gain (95-C.Jones).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Doctson.
- (:50) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.86 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.88 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.73 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Play action | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.90 pts |
| Deep post | -0.93 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.06 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -1.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.86 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.