Rams vs Seahawks — Week 5, 2017
The Rams took over trailing 13-10 with 4:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 1 timeout in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 10, Seahawks 16. Seahawks won 16-10 — the drive turnover.
Rams ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 7, 4:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.7% for Rams. Our model starts at 29.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:17) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley right guard to LA 9 for 2 yards (97-M.Smith).
- (3:29) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 89-T.Higbee to LA 43 for 29 yards (92-N.Jones).
- (2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 35 for -8 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-91-S.Richardson at LA 40. 91-S.Richardson to LA 20 for 20 yards (77-A.Whitworth).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.10 pts), and the weakest was Receiver pass (-3.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.10 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.37 pts |
| QB keep | -1.46 pts |
| Quick out | -1.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.58 pts |
| Curl route | -1.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.67 pts |
| Outside run | -1.96 pts |
| Inside run | -2.02 pts |
| Deep post | -2.06 pts |
| Play action | -2.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.36 pts |
| Spike it | -2.47 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.56 pts |
| End-around | -3.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.