Raiders vs Eagles — Week 16, 2017
The Raiders took over tied at 10 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 10, Eagles 19. Eagles won 19-10 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 41, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 60.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) 24-M.Lynch right end to LV 45 for 4 yards (94-B.Allen).
- (4:10) 24-M.Lynch up the middle to LV 43 for -2 yards (75-V.Curry; 56-C.Long).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 24-M.Lynch to LV 40 for -3 yards (93-T.Jernigan).
- (2:35) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to PHI 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 9. 38-K.Barner to PHI 12 for 3 yards (16-J.Holton; 91-S.Calhoun).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | +0.12 pts |
| Quick out | -0.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.12 pts |
| Curl route | -0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.34 pts |
| Play action | -0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
| End-around | -2.89 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.01 pts |
| Deep post | -3.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.