Dolphins vs Chargers — Week 2, 2017
The Dolphins took over trailing 17-16 with 3:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 19, Chargers 17. Dolphins won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. Near midfield, 3:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 49.9% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 58.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi right tackle to LAC 41 for 10 yards (20-D.King, 57-J.Brown).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi right tackle to LAC 39 for 2 yards (26-C.Hayward).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 23-J.Ajayi right end to LAC 37 for 2 yards (99-J.Bosa, 26-C.Hayward).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 23-J.Ajayi to LAC 36 for 1 yard (33-T.Boston, 24-Tr.Williams).
- (1:10) 1-C.Parkey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.29 pts |
| QB keep | +1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.98 pts |
| Curl route | +0.75 pts |
| Quick out | +0.47 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.24 pts |
| Play action | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.19 pts |
| End-around | -2.59 pts |
| Deep post | -2.85 pts |
| Spike it | -2.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.