Buccaneers vs Giants — Week 4, 2017
The Buccaneers took over trailing 23-22 with 3:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 25, Giants 23. Buccaneers won 25-23 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.5% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 47.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to TB 31 for 6 yards (41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie).
- (2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left end to TB 38 for 7 yards.
- (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to NYG 48 for 14 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans to NYG 44 for 4 yards (20-J.Jenkins, 57-K.Robinson).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate pushed ob at NYG 39 for 5 yards (20-J.Jenkins).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 84-C.Brate to NYG 13 for 26 yards (21-L.Collins).
- (:41) 3-J.Winston kneels to NYG 15 for -2 yards.
- (:35) 3-J.Winston kneels to NYG 16 for -1 yards.
- (:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. Penalty on NYG-21-L.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.35 pts |
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| QB keep | +1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.16 pts |
| Quick out | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.40 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep post | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -2.22 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.