Colts vs Bills — Week 14, 2017
The Colts took over tied at 7 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Colts 7, Bills 13. Bills won 13-7 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 10, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.1% for Colts. Our model starts at 52.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) 23-F.Gore right guard to IND 15 for 5 yards (55-J.Hughes).
- (3:35) 23-F.Gore up the middle to IND 25 for 10 yards (58-M.Milano).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Doyle. Overthrown, receiver at IND 40, slanting to left.
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton (95-K.Williams). Thrown behind receiver at IND 35. Pass tipped at line.
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 80-C.Rogers to IND 31 for 6 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught at IND 31, crossing from middle.
- (2:35) 2-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-44-A.Morrison.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.62 pts |
| Outside run | -1.69 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Curl route | -1.79 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Quick out | -1.80 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.99 pts |
| Play action | -2.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.67 pts |
| Deep post | -3.91 pts |
| End-around | -4.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.