Jaguars vs Cardinals — Week 12, 2017
The Jaguars took over tied at 24 with 3:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 24, Cardinals 27. Cardinals won 27-24 — the drive turnover.
Jaguars ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 42, 3:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.5% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 62.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon pushed ob at ARI 42 for 16 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon left tackle to ARI 40 for 2 yards (92-F.Rucker).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at ARI 38 for 2 yards (21-P.Peterson).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 12-D.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at ARI 40. 32-T.Mathieu pushed ob at ARI 41 for 1 yard (24-T.Yeldon).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.99 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.87 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Curl route | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.76 pts |
| Spike it | -2.78 pts |
| End-around | -2.80 pts |
| Deep post | -3.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.