Falcons vs Bills — Week 4, 2017
The Falcons took over trailing 20-17 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at the Bills 42, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 17, Bills 23. Bills won 23-17 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. In Bills territory, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.5% for Falcons. Our model starts at 46.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman right end to BUF 49 for -7 yards (23-M.Hyde).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 14-J.Hardy.
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Williams INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at BUF 28. 23-M.Hyde to ATL 35 for 37 yards (67-A.Levitre). The Replay Official reviewed the pass interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| QB keep | +0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.84 pts |
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.67 pts |
| Deep post | -1.93 pts |
| End-around | -2.18 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.