Titans vs Rams — Week 16, 2017
The Titans took over trailing 27-23 with 3:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Titans 23, Rams 27. Rams won 27-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 3:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.1% for Titans. Our model starts at 23.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right end pushed ob at TEN 28 for 8 yards (23-N.Robey).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 29-D.Murray right guard to TEN 37 for 9 yards (98-C.Barwin).
- (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-D.Murray right tackle to TEN 39 for 2 yards (58-C.Littleton; 52-A.Ogletree). TEN-29-D.Murray was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-D.Walker to LA 49 for 12 yards (58-C.Littleton).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis.
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 87-E.Decker.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 22-D.Henry to LA 43 for 6 yards (22-T.Johnson).
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 32-D.Fluellen [98-C.Barwin].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.06 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.04 pts |
| QB keep | +0.92 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Deep post | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.24 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -1.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.