Seahawks vs Texans — Week 8, 2017
The Seahawks took over trailing 38-34 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 41, Texans 38. Seahawks won 41-38 — the drive turnover.
Seahawks ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.8% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 27.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin (21-M.Gilchrist).
- (4:42) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end ran ob at SEA 36 for 11 yards (29-A.Hal).
- (4:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 81-N.Vannett to SEA 44 for 8 yards (55-B.McKinney).
- (3:57) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 10-P.Richardson to HOU 41 for 15 yards (40-M.Williams).
- (3:14) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett.
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle ran ob at HOU 20 for 21 yards (40-M.Williams). HOU-91-C.Watkins was injured during the play.
- (2:55) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 10-P.Richardson INTERCEPTED by 40-M.Williams [58-L.Houston] at HOU 6. 40-M.Williams pushed ob at HOU 8 for 2 yards (10-P.Richardson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.96 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Deep post | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| End-around | -1.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.16 pts |
| Spike it | -2.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.