Packers vs Cowboys — Week 5, 2017
The Packers took over trailing 31-28 with 1:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Packers 35, Cowboys 31. Packers won 35-31 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 25.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at GB 39 for 14 yards (27-J.Lewis).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-M.Bennett to DAL 47 for 14 yards (25-X.Woods).
- (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (95-D.Irving).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end pushed ob at DAL 32 for 15 yards (30-A.Brown).
- (:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 81-G.Allison [95-D.Irving].
- (:35) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle to DAL 30 for 2 yards (90-D.Lawrence; 95-D.Irving).
- (:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end ran ob at DAL 12 for 18 yards (31-B.Jones).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (27-J.Lewis).
- (:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.25 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.59 pts |
| Deep post | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.42 pts |
| Play action | +1.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.82 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.58 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.76 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Spike it | -2.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.