Bengals vs Texans — Week 2, 2017
The Bengals took over trailing 13-9 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 9, Texans 13. Texans won 13-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bengals ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 31, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 23.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-B.LaFell ran ob at CIN 43 for 12 yards.
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 12-A.Erickson (35-E.Pleasant).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 12-A.Erickson to CIN 49 for 6 yards (35-E.Pleasant).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right. {thrown away}
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 12-A.Erickson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.96 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.38 pts |
| Deep post | +1.34 pts |
| QB keep | +1.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.97 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.77 pts |
| Outside run | -0.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| End-around | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.