Saints vs Falcons — Week 14, 2017
The Saints took over trailing 20-17 with 3:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Saints 17, Falcons 20. Falcons won 20-17 — the drive turnover.
Saints ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 3:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 31.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas ran ob at ATL 45 for 35 yards (34-B.Poole).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 22-M.Ingram. NO-13-M.Thomas was injured during the play.
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram to ATL 33 for 12 yards (23-R.Alford; 59-D.Campbell). NO-22-M.Ingram was injured during the play.
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 16-B.Coleman to ATL 24 for 9 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (2:20) 22-M.Ingram left tackle to ATL 24 for no gain (92-D.Poe; 45-D.Jones).
- (2:00) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Snead. Penalty on NO-71-R.Ramczyk, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (1:55) 9-D.Brees right guard to ATL 22 for 2 yards (36-K.Ishmael).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 19-T.Ginn to ATL 11 for 11 yards (37-R.Allen). NO-19-T.Ginn was injured during the play.
- (1:39) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead to ATL 11 for no gain (45-D.Jones).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle intended for 89-J.Hill INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones at ATL -5. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.34 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| QB keep | +0.99 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Deep post | -0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| End-around | -1.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.16 pts |
| Spike it | -2.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.